Forecasting Risk – What Every CISO and CIO Needs to Know – Charlene Deaver-Vazquez – BSW #256

Every CISO CIO asks the question, what’s the risk? Quantitative analysis, mathematical models are designed to answer this question. Understand how they work, when to use them, and what they can tell us.

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Forecasting Risk – What Every CISO and CIO Needs to Know


Charlene Deaver-Vazquez

Charlene Deaver-Vazquez – President at FISMACS, LLC


President of FISMACS, LLC Charlene worked as a subject matter expert in cybersecurity for 12 years. She worked in IT for 30 years in both private and government sectors, from supporting small networks and programming to designing global network. Twelve years ago, she transitioned to compliance managing a multi-million-dollar contract, then went on to auditing installation sites, cloud and even supporting deployable platforms. For the last several years she has been performing enterprise-level risk analysis and quantification for Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In 2021 she created Probabilistic Risk Modeling for Cyber (P-RMOD4Cyber) a framework of methods, models, and guides for cyber related quantitative analysis which can be found at This course can also be found on the National Initiative for Cybersecurity Careers and Studies catalog at She also authored Ensure Your Business Success With Risk Informed Decisions: How to easily quantify risk, available on Amazon. Her latest mathematical model is groundbreaking in that it can be used to forecast cyber attack event sequence, intensity and risk. It’s call the Marked Hawkes Process with Indicators of Prevalence for Cyber (MHP-IP4Cyber).


Ben Carr

Ben Carr – CISO at Cradlepoint

Ben Carr is the Chief Information Security Officer at Qualys. He is an information security and risk executive with more than 25 years of experience in developing and executing long-term security strategies. Ben has demonstrated global leadership and experience, through executive leadership roles of advanced technology, high risk, and rapid-growth initiatives, at companies such as Aristocrat, Tenable, Visa and Nokia. While at Aristocrat, Ben built a world-class global cybersecurity program from the ground up as part of a digital transformation. As a senior cybersecurity executive at Visa, Ben was responsible for developing and leading Visa’s Global Attack Surface Management Team and capability. Prior to Visa, he led all security programs for Nokia corporate IT as the Global Head of IT Security. Ben holds a certificate in Risk & Information Systems Control (CRISC), is a Certified Data Privacy Solutions Engineer (CDPSE).

Jason Albuquerque

Jason Albuquerque – Chief Operating Officer at Envision Technologies


Jason Albuquerque is the COO of Envision Technologies.

Matt Alderman

Matt Alderman – Executive Director at CyberRisk Alliance


Strategic Advisor at Automox, security consultant, and wizard of entrepreneurship.


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